Systems Analysis
CPM, PERT, & CASE
(CPM, PERT, & CASE)

System Life Cycle:

  1. Analyse the problem
  2. Specify the requirements for a solution and alternatives
  3. Design a solution to match the specification
  4. Implement the design
  5. Assure quality of the end product
  6. Maintain the end product
  7. Returns to step 1 for upgrades

Crictical Path Method (CPM)

Two systems of project planning and development were introduced in the late 1950s. The two systems were base on a network of portrayal activites that make up the project. CPM was first used to manage the annual maintenance work in an oil and chemical refinery.


Figure 1: Network Diagram for the Critical Path Method

The above figure is an example of a network or arrow diagram used in developing an electronic component for a complex system. Each circle on the diagram represents the a task or well-defined activity that is part of the project. The number above each arrow represents the expected time required to complete the path from one task to another.

To go from Task A to Task B requires one week to complete and might, for example, represent the development of general specifications. Arrows indicate the precedence of relationships and depict which tasks must be completed before subsequent task can begin. In the example, tasks B, C, and D cannot be started until A has been completed.

Task H cannot be started until parts A, B, C, D, E, F and G are completed. This could be one of the final phases of the product such as testing. Without the previous steps, the project cannot be tested. The arrow diagram helps us determine how long a project will take to complete. Adding all of the task times together in the example indicates there are 33 weeks of work to be completed. However, several tasks can be done simultaneously. For example, once task A is finished, B, C, and D can be started and worked on at the same time. Thus, the earliest completion date can be determined by looking at all possible paths through the network and choosing the longest one, or the one with tasks requiring the most total time. In this example, the longest or critical path is A-C-F-H taking a total of 13 weeks to complete.

The arrow diagram also gives more information to the project planner. The earliest possible time that task H can be started is in 10 weeks after the start of the project (after tasks A, C, and F have been completed). When task A is completed, tasks B and E do not have to be started immediately in order to complete the project in the minimum possible time. Task B has four weeks of slack and E has one week of slack. The diagram shows that if activity B is started four weeks later than its earliest possible start time, then task E would then be started after Task B. This still allows H to be completed at its earliest time, after 10 weeks. Slack in a project network is a powerful concept that allows planners to schedule scarce resources efficently and manage people and equipment so that critical activities are kept on schedule and slack activites are delayed without placing the project in jeopardy. This simple example is based on CPM logic; it uses single-point task time estimates and assumes that the completion time for the project is the sum of the task times along the critical path.

PERT (Project Evaluation Review Technique)

PERT was developed in the late 1950's for the Special Projects Office of the Navy Bureau of Ordnance. The use of PERT is credited with advancing the successful completion of the Polaris program by more than two years.

PERT uses probabilistic techniques to allow for uncertainties in time estimates for various activities involved in a project. It is thus suited for projects utilizing new and emerging technologies. Examples are NASA's Space Station Project; Air Force's NASP Project; etc.

The techniques described so far can be carried out manually fairly easily. This is true in the case of very simple networks involving a few tasks only. Most real life problems are much more complex and the situation becomes more involved when reviews followed by recomputations are undertaken routinely. By computer implementation of the process it is now possible to use the technique fairly easily in less time. Moreover, most software help identify network errors, such as loops and disjointed paths.

The objectives of the PERT method were put forth in the PERT Summary Report - Phase 2 of September, 1958 and can be described as follows:

1. The fostering of increased orderliness and consistency in the planning and evaluating of all areas in the project
2. The providing of an automatic mechanism for the identification of potential trouble spots in all areas which arise as a result of a failure in one.
3. The structuring of a method to give operational flexibility to the program by allowing for experimentation in a simulated sense.
4. The speedy handling and analysis of the integrated data, thus allowing for expeditious correction of recognized trouble areas.

PERT and CPM (Critical Path Method) are similar in concept: both use network diagrams and calculate critical paths and floats. However, they differ in several significant ways:

-PERT is event oriented
-PERT uses three time estimates for each activity
-PERT calculates the probability of meeting a scheduled date


Webpage by Keith Lo & David Wu